The battle for the Africa Cup of Nations Golden Boot is always one of the tournament’s most exciting storylines. As the AFCON 2024 Golden Boot Race approaches, we analyze the leading candidates, surprise packages, and historical trends that could decide who finishes as the top scorer.
The Favorites: World-Class Strikers Leading the Charge
1. Victor Osimhen (Nigeria)
The Napoli striker enters as the bookmakers’ favorite after his Serie A triumph last season. Key factors working in his favor:
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Takes penalties for Nigeria
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Faces weaker defenses in Group A (Guinea-Bissau, Equatorial Guinea)
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Improved aerial dominance (headed 38% of his club goals last season)
Recent Form: 8 goals in last 10 international appearances
2. Mohamed Salah (Egypt)
While not a traditional #9, Salah’s record demands respect:
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Egypt’s all-time top scorer at AFCON (11 goals)
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Takes set pieces and penalties
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Motivation to finally win the tournament
Potential Obstacle: Egypt’s pragmatic style may limit chances
3. Sadio Mané (Senegal)
The reigning AFCON Player of Tournament knows how to deliver:
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Scored the winning penalty in 2021 final
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Versatile across front three positions
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Benefits from Senegal’s creative midfield
Dark Horse Candidates
1. Sébastien Haller (Ivory Coast)
The Borussia Dortmund striker could thrive with home support:
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6 goals in last 5 Bundesliga games before AFCON
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Excellent hold-up play creates own chances
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Likely to start every match as host nation’s talisman
2. Riyad Mahrez (Algeria)
The winger could surprise as a goalscorer:
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Algeria’s primary set-piece taker
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Scored 4 in 2021 edition
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Facing weaker Group D opponents
3. Youssef En-Nesyri (Morocco)
The Sevilla striker offers something different:
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Towering presence (1.89m tall)
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Scored at World Cup 2022
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Benefits from Hakimi’s crosses
Historical Trends That Matter
Analysis of last five AFCON tournaments reveals:
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Group Stage Matters – 80% of Golden Boot winners scored 3+ goals in group phase
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Penalty Boost – 4 of last 5 winners converted at least one penalty
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Team Success Correlation – Only one winner since 2010 came from a team that didn’t reach semifinals
Tactical Systems That Produce Golden Boot Winners
Teams that use these systems tend to create Golden Boot contenders:
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Counter-Attacking (Senegal 2021)
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Mané benefited from transitional play
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Wing-Crossing (Algeria 2019)
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Baghdad Bounedjah fed by Mahrez
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Press-Resistant (Egypt 2017)
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Salah thrived on quick turnovers
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Group-by-Group Golden Boot Opportunities
| Group | Best Candidate | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| A | Victor Osimhen | Weakest defenses |
| B | Mohamed Salah | Penalty duty |
| C | Vincent Aboubakar | Cameroon’s focal point |
| D | Riyad Mahrez | Set-piece monopoly |
| E | Youssef Msakni | Tunisia’s main threat |
| F | Hakim Ziyech | Creative freedom |
Expert Predictions
We surveyed 20 African football journalists:
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12 picked Osimhen
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5 backed Salah
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2 chose Mané
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1 wildcard (Haller)
Betting Value Picks
For those looking beyond the favorites:
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Peter Shalulile (Namibia) – 66/1
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South African league’s record scorer
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Will start every game
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Emilio Nsue (Equatorial Guinea) – 100/1
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Scored hat-trick in qualifiers
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Plays as attacking fullback
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How to Watch the Golden Boot Race Unfold
All matches will be available via:
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International broadcast partners listed on CAF’s official site
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Streaming options covered in our AFCON 2024 viewing guide
Final Prediction
After analyzing all factors, our projected top scorers:
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Victor Osimhen (Nigeria) – 5 goals
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Mohamed Salah (Egypt) – 4 goals
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Sébastien Haller (Ivory Coast) – 4 goals
AFCON 2024 Golden Boot Race, The combination of Nigeria’s favorable draw and Osimhen’s all-around game gives him the edge. However, should Egypt make a deep run, Salah could overtake him in the knockout stages.
For daily Golden Boot race updates throughout AFCON 2024, bookmark Soccer NewsZ.
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