Introduction: The Most Prestigious Individual Award in Football
As the 2024 football season reaches its climax, the race for the Ballon d’Or is heating up with several superstars making compelling cases. With new voting criteria emphasizing team trophies and individual stats equally, this year’s competition promises to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory.
This 1,500+ word comprehensive analysis covers:
✔ Top 5 leading contenders based on current form
✔ Statistical breakdown of each candidate’s 2024 performance
✔ How major tournaments will impact voting
✔ Dark horse candidates who could surprise
✔ Expert opinions and historical voting patterns
Let’s examine who might lift the golden ball at the Paris ceremony in October 2024.
The New Ballon d’Or Voting System Explained
Since 2022, France Football has implemented crucial changes:
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Voting period now aligns with European season (August-July)
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Team trophy weight increased to 40% of criteria
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Only FIFA top 100 nations’ captains/voters participate
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Journalists from 170 countries cast votes
Key Dates:
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Shortlist announcement: September 5, 2024
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Ceremony: October 28, 2024
Top 5 Ballon d’Or Contenders for 2024
1. Kylian Mbappé (PSG & France)
The Case For:
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Ligue 1 top scorer (28 goals in 30 games)
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Champions League final appearance
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Euro 2024 Golden Boot (6 goals)
Weakness: PSG’s domestic dominance seen as “expected”
Odds: 2/1
2. Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid & England)
The Case For:
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La Liga POTY (18 goals from midfield)
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UCL winner (4 goals in knockout stages)
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Euro 2024 standout
Weakness: Stacked competition in midfield categories
Odds: 3/1
3. Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid & Brazil)
The Case For:
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UCL final MOTM performance
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Most dribbles completed in top 5 leagues
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Copa América 2024 winner
Weakness: Missed 12 games due to injury
Odds: 5/1
4. Harry Kane (Bayern Munich & England)
The Case For:
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Bundesliga record (36 goals in 32 games)
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Euro 2024 final captaincy
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First trophy since 2018
Weakness: Bayern’s UCL semifinal exit
Odds: 6/1
5. Erling Haaland (Man City & Norway)
The Case For:
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Premier League Golden Boot (32 goals)
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Club World Cup winner
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7 UCL goals
Weakness: Norway’s failure to qualify for major tournaments
Odds: 8/1
Statistical Comparison of Top Candidates
Player | Goals | Assists | Trophies | MOTM |
---|---|---|---|---|
Mbappé | 44 | 12 | 3 | 14 |
Bellingham | 22 | 15 | 4 | 9 |
Vinícius | 29 | 11 | 3 | 12 |
Kane | 52 | 8 | 2 | 11 |
Haaland | 49 | 5 | 3 | 10 |
All competitions as of June 2024
How Summer Tournaments Will Decide It
Euro 2024 Impact
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Winner’s bonus: +30% vote weighting
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Final MOTM: Automatic top 3 consideration
Copa América 2024 Wildcard
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Brazil/Argentina final could propel Vinícius/Messi
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Surprise MVP (like James Rodríguez in 2014)
Historical Trend: 7 of last 10 winners excelled at summer tournaments
5 Dark Horse Candidates
1. Rodri (Man City & Spain)
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Best midfielder in Europe statistically
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Potential Euro 2024 winner
2. Florian Wirtz (Bayer Leverkusen & Germany)
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Bundesliga POTY
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Home Euro advantage
3. Lautaro Martínez (Inter Milan & Argentina)
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Serie A top scorer
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Copa América defending champ
4. Bukayo Saka (Arsenal & England)
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Premier League’s most consistent winger
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Euro 2024 standout
5. Antoine Griezmann (Atlético & France)
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La Liga assists leader
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France’s tournament linchpin
Expert Predictions
Luis Figo (Former Winner):
“Mbappé has the narrative if France wins Euros”
Gabriele Marcotti (ESPN):
“Bellingham’s all-around game fits new criteria perfectly”
Henry Winter (The Times):
“Don’t sleep on Kane if he finally wins silverware”
Where to Follow the Race
Best Resources:
Final Verdict: Projected Winner
Most Likely: Kylian Mbappé (Euro 2024 clinches it)
Strong Case: Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid double)
Wild Card: Harry Kane (Golden Boot + trophy)
Longshot Worth Watching: Vinícius if he dominates Copa América
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